Drain at construction site

Het tegengaan van de kapitaaluitstroom uit de ontwikkelingslanden

NEW YORK – De ontwikkelingslanden zetten zich dit jaar schrap voor een grote economische groeivertraging. Volgens het VN-rapport World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 heeft hun groei in 2015 gemiddeld slechts 3,8 procent bedragen – de laagste groei sinds de mondiale financiële crisis van 2009, in deze eeuw slechts geëvenaard door het recessiejaar 2001. Het is belangrijk te bedenken dat de inzinking in China en de diepe recessies in de Russische Federatie en Brazilië slechts een deel van de brede groeivertraging verklaren.

De dalende vraag naar natuurlijke hulpbronnen in China (dat bijna de helft van de mondiale vraag naar basismetalen voor zijn rekening neemt) heeft veel te maken gehad met de scherpe dalingen van deze prijzen, waardoor veel opkomende economieën in Latijns-Amerika en Afrika hard zijn getroffen. In het VN-rapport staan 29 economieën die waarschijnlijk zeer negatieve gevolgen van de Chinese groeivertraging zullen ondervinden. En de instorting van de olieprijs met ruim 60 procent sinds juli 2014 heeft de groeivooruitzichten van de olie-exporteurs ondermijnd.

De echte zorg betreft echter niet alleen de dalende grondstoffenprijzen, maar ook de enorme kapitaaluitstroom. In de periode 2009-2014 hadden de ontwikkelingslanden gezamenlijk te maken met een netto-instroom van kapitaal van $2,2 bln, deels als gevolg van de kwantitatieve versoepeling in de geavanceerde economieën, waardoor de rente naar bijna nul werd teruggebracht.

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