Drain at construction site

遏制发展中国家资本外流

纽约——发展中国家即将在本年度迎来一个重大的增长放缓。根据联合国发布的《2016年世界经济形势与展望》报告,这些国家在2015年的平均增长将只有3.8%——是2009年全球金融危机以来最低水平,萧条程度也跟2001年并无二致。更需牢记的是,中国经济的放缓以及俄罗斯联邦和巴西的深度衰退只是导致增长全面衰退的一部分原因。

诚然,在中国对自然资源的需求下降(占了全球基本金属需求的近一半)是这类产品价格大幅下跌的主因,也重创了许多拉丁美洲和非洲发展中国家和新兴经济体。事实上,联合国报告指出有29个经济体可能会受到中国经济放缓的严重影响。而油价自2014年7月以来超过60%的下跌也削弱了石油出口国的增长前景。

但真正让人担心不只是商品价格的下跌,还有大规模的资本外流。 2009~2014年间,发展中国家总共获得了2.2万亿美元的净资本流入,部分原因是发达经济体的量化宽松政策在令利率处于近零水平。

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