Paul Lachine

¿Democracia o finanzas?

LONDRES – “Operar en corto” es una táctica muy conocida entre los entendidos financieros. Significa apostar contra un activo con dinero prestado con la expectativa de generar una ganancia cuando su valor decaiga.

Un especulador puede “operar en corto” con un gobierno tomando prestada su deuda a su precio actual, con la esperanza de venderla más tarde a un precio menor y embolsar la diferencia. Por ejemplo: el 1 de enero de 2010, pienso que el juego pronto terminará para los griegos. La pido prestados por seis meses a Goldman Sachs, a valor nominal, 10 millones de euros del bono del gobierno griego con vencimiento en 2016, que está operando a 0,91 céntimos de euro. Por esto, tengo que pagarle a Goldman Sachs el rendimiento que recibiría del bono –aproximadamente 5% anual a ese precio, o sea alrededor del 2,5% o 250.000 euros- durante el período de seis meses.

Inmediatamente vendo ese bono en el mercado, a 0,91 céntimos de euro, de modo que obtengo 9,1 millones de euros (0,91 céntimos de euro x 10 millones de euros a valor nominal). Afortunadamente, mi visión pesimista se cristaliza en mayo, cuando la magnitud plena de los problemas fiscales del país se vuelve evidente. El 30 de junio, cuando debo devolverle a Goldman Sachs los 10 millones de euros en bonos griegos con vencimiento en 2016 a valor nominal, el bono está operando a apenas 0,72 céntimos de euro aproximadamente. De modo que entro en el mercado, compro 10 millones de euros a valor nominal a 0,72 céntimos de euro, o 7,2 millones de euros, y le devuelvo los certificados de bonos a Goldman Sachs según nuestro acuerdo.

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