Paul Lachine

¿Demanda u oferta?

CHICAGO – La economía es enteramente un asunto de demanda y oferta. Las dos están equilibradas y, si no, unas fuerzas potentes las impulsan para que lo estén, pero, en vista de los altos y persistentes niveles de desempleo ahora existentes en los Estados Unidos, es necesario preguntarse por la naturaleza real del problema: ¿es demasiado baja la demanda agregada o hay problemas con la oferta?

El gobierno del Presidente Barack Obama parece creer que se trata de un problema de demanda y ha aprobado una medida de estímulo tras otra, reduciendo los impuestos y aumentando las transferencias y el gasto gubernamental para impulsar el consumo y la inversión. La Reserva Federal tiene una idea similar, no sólo al mantener unos tipos de interés mínimos a corto plazo, sino también al lanzarse a una política arriesgada en relación con los tipos a largo plazo. Algunos economistas progresistas quieren algo más incluso.

¿Por qué no han dado resultado hasta ahora esas políticas para reducir el empleo, pese a que ya está en marcha la recuperación del crecimiento? El economista progresista dice que el estímulo ha dado resultado, al evitar una recesión mucho mas profunda –si no peor–, pero que han sido medidas demasiado tímidas para producir una recuperación sólida.

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