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Démystification du financement monétaire

LONDRES – Malgré une pléthore de mesures diverses, huit ans après la crise de 2008 les Etats et les banques centrales n'ont pas réussi à stimuler suffisamment la demande pour parvenir à une croissance forte et durable. Au Japon, le Premier ministre Shinzo Abe visait un taux d'inflation de 2% en 2015. Au lieu de cela, la Banque du Japon prévoit pour cette année une inflation proche de zéro, avec une croissance du PIB inférieure à 1%. Dangereusement dépendante des exportations, la croissance de la zone euro a baissé de moitié au cours du 2° trimestre de cette année. Même le redressement de l'économie américaine paraît manquer de souffle.

Les discussions relatives à une "distribution d'argent par hélicoptère" (l'injection de liquidité, l'argent hélicoptère, directement entre les mains des consommateurs ou la monétisation de la dette publique) se sont répandues. A priori les arguments en faveur de ce financement monétaire sont clairs.

Si l'Etat baisse les impôts, augmente les dépenses publiques ou distribue directement de l'argent aux ménages et si les banques centrales créent une nouvelle monnaie permanente pour financer cette stimulation, le patrimoine nominal des citoyens va augmenter. Et contrairement à ce qui se passe lorsque c'est l'endettement qui finance le déficit, ils n'auront pas à verser une taxe pour rembourser la dette souscrite en leur nom. Une augmentation de la demande nominale agrégée va inévitablement se produire, avec un degré de stimulation grossièrement proportionnel à la quantité de monnaie créée.

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