欧元区的抉择时刻

雅典——德国人反对引入欧元债券、扩大欧元区援助基金以及建立完整的经济治理体系,他们的态度是公开的,立场也是可以理解的。但他们就一定对吗?

德国人担心,这样的举措会导致国内借贷成本上升,并造成流向穷国的直接或间接的财政转移。此外,他们警告说,纾缓过度负债国的负担以使它们的公共财政恢复有序状态会造成道德风险。第三,他们还抬出了条约和宪政方面的理由,说确定刺激“财政联盟”形成的规则和程序十分困难。最后,将欧洲统一起来共同前进,以使过度负债国主权不可避免地有所损失的需要最终也会让德国的主权受到损失。

另一方面,拒绝接受人们日渐一致的观点——财政联盟是解决债务危机的关键——将使欧元区和德国面临重大风险。半死不活的政策将使市场变得不耐烦,也会激起早已准备就绪的投机袭击,不光疲软的外围国家要遭殃,核心的AAA国家如法国(最终还有德国自己)也脱不了干系——它们的银行部门持有着巨量的外围国家债务。

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