非洲的结构转型挑战

普林斯顿—长期被视为经济不健全者的撒哈拉以南非洲地区正在经历自独立后的几年以来的最强的经济增长。自然资源禀赋起到了提振作用,但好消息并不只限于资源丰富国。埃塞俄比亚、卢旺达和乌干达等国家自20世纪90年代中期以来以东非速度增长着。非洲的商业和政治领导人对非洲大陆的未来充满了乐观。

问题在于这样的表现能否持续。目前,增长的驱动力来自外部资源(援助、债务豁免和商品资源禀赋)以及取消过去的一些最糟糕的政策扭曲。国内生产率因国内商品和服务需求的增长(特别是后者)以及资源的高效使用而获得了提振。麻烦在于未来生产率改进之源来自何方。

根本问题是这些经济体结构转型不力。东亚国家的快速增长来自短时间内复制了当今发达国家在工业革命后所做的事情。农民转变为制造业工人,经济实现多元化,并开始出口一系列日益成熟的商品。

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