La Rusia de Europa

SOFIA – El orden de la post-Guerra Fría se terminó y Vladimir Putin fue su verdugo. La invasión de Georgia por parte de Rusia sólo marcó su defunción. Rusia emergió de la guerra como una potencia del siglo XIX vuelta a nacer y decidida a desafiar los cimientos intelectuales, morales e institucionales del orden europeo de la post-Guerra Fría.

Hoy, Rusia y la Unión Europea tienen visiones marcadamente encontradas respecto de las causas de la inestabilidad en Eurasia. Si Occidente persiste en ignorar las preocupaciones de Rusia y sigue expandiendo la OTAN en el espacio post-soviético, no hará más que reintroducir la política de esferas de influencia en Eurasia. Pero romper con las políticas de los años 1990 también implica serios riesgos, porque la UE no es, y no puede ser, una gran potencia tradicional y porque la debilidad de Occidente puede terminar recompensando -y estimulando- el revanchismo ruso.

Cualquier reformulación de la política de la UE hacia Rusia debería reconocer que, si bien Rusia seguirá siendo una potencia regional y un actor global durante la próxima década, es improbable que se convierta en una democracia liberal. La UE también debería reconocer que Rusia tiene preocupaciones legítimas sobre el impacto asimétrico del fin de la Guerra Fría en su seguridad. Rusia se sintió traicionada en sus expectativas de que el fin de la Guerra Fría traería aparejada la desmilitarización de Europa central y del este. Si bien la ampliación de la OTAN no implicó ninguna amenaza real a la seguridad para Rusia, cambió el equilibrio militar entre Rusia y Occidente, alimentando el revisionismo del Kremlin.

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