Ägyptens wirtschaftliche Alarmglocken

NEWPORT BEACH – Angesichts einer turbulenten politischen Lage und wiederkehrender Straßenproteste wären Ägyptens politische Eliten gut beraten, sich auf die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der aktuellen Unruhen zu konzentrieren – und zwar gleichgültig, ob sie nun der Regierung oder der Opposition angehören. Dies würde dazu führen, dass sie sich sieben zwingender Gründe bewusst werden, warum ein kooperativer Ansatz zur Lösung der Probleme des Landes in Ägyptens kollektivem Interesse, aber auch in ihrem eigenen individuellen Interesse wäre.

Erstens stehen der ägyptischen Volkswirtschaft, wenn sich das gesellschaftliche und politische Chaos fortsetzt, letztlich lähmende Inflation, schwere Zahlungsbilanzprobleme und eine Haushaltskrise bevor. Das Risiko einer gefährlichen, sich selbst verstärkenden Abwärtsspirale würde rapide steigen.

Doch statt eines Zusammenbruches (im Stil der asiatischen und lateinamerikanischen Volkswirtschaften während früherer Schuldenkrisen) würde Ägyptens Volkswirtschaft eine Rückkehr zu drückenden Kontrollen und zum Schwarzmarkt riskieren. Wirtschaftliche Effizienz, Investitionen und Beschäftigung würden deutlich einbrechen, und das langsamere Wirtschaftswachstum ginge einher mit höheren Preisen – auch für Grundnahrungsmittel.

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