Climate Science or Climate Evangelism?

COPENHAGUE – Como George W. Bush y Tony Blair lo entendieron por las malas, el público no tolera que se le engañe sobre la naturaleza de las amenazas potenciales. La revelación posterior a los hechos de que las razones para invadir Irak fueron enormemente exageradas –y en algunos casos completamente inventadas- provocó una violenta reacción que ayudó a sacar a los republicanos del poder en los Estados Unidos en 2008 y puede ocasionar lo mismo con el Partido Laborista de Gran Bretaña este año.

En la opinión pública se está dando un cambio similar con respecto al cambio climático. El proceso cobró impulso el año pasado, después de que algunos piratas informáticos filtraran miles de correos electrónicos de un prestigioso centro de investigación británico que muestran que algunos de los climatólogos más influyentes del mundo habían estado tratando de ocultar errores en su trabajo, bloquear el escrutinio y conspirar juntos para imponer lo que equivale a una línea de partido sobre el cambio climático. Más recientemente, el respetado grupo asesor de las Naciones Unidas, el Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC por sus siglas en inglés), ha quedado en una posición embarazosa por las revelaciones de que algunas predicciones alarmantes contenidas en un importante informe que publicó en 2007 tenían muy poco o ningún sustento científico.

Aunque ninguna de estas fallas ofrece razones para dudar que el cambio climático es real, ha sido provocado por el hombre y nos causará problemas, estos desafíos al IPCC están teniendo consecuencias. En efecto, algunas encuestas recientes muestran que el público confía cada vez menos en el consenso científico sobre el calentamiento global.

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