How China Views Trump

Nov 30, 2016 Keyu Jin

Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the US presidential election has shaken the world. But China has remained largely unmoved, despite having been one of the president-elect's favorite targets on the campaign trail.

LONDON – Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the US presidential election has shaken the world. From Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s conspicuous silence to French President Francois Hollande’s statement that it opens up a “period of uncertainty” to the Kremlin’s barely concealed giddiness, Trump has not been received internationally like past US presidents. But one country has remained largely unmoved: China.

Trump’s stance on China is well known: he has blamed the country for everything from hacks on his opponent (thought by the US government to be the work of Russia) to climate change (which he has called a hoax cooked up by China to undermine US competitiveness). And he has promised to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese goods.

Yet prudence flows through China’s Confucian veins. Rather than jumping to conclusions about future US policies, much less taking premature action, China’s leaders have remained neutral in their response to Trump’s victory. They seem confident that, though the bilateral relationship will change somewhat, it will not be fundamentally transformed. It will still be neither very good nor very bad.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 18 Comments on this article

hardytran Jan 30, 2018

I can't help but sense an extreme sense of China bias in this article..
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
jagjeet sinha Dec 4, 2016

TRUMP CANNOT CHANGE THE TRUTH, BUT THE TRUTH WILL CHANGE TRUMP.

Rhetoric of the Campaign that has shaped Candidate Trump is remote from reality.
President Trump is different from Candidate Trump - otherwise HRC would be President.
Only the naive will waste their time in pinning him down - with Campaign rhetoric.
With less than 1 % probability of winning, when Campaign commenced, President Trump is clearly in tune with the Truth.
While there may be hiccups in the revelation of The Real TRUMP, to have turned defeat into victory @ 70 - I am seeing REAGAN 2.0.
Those attempting to become USSR 2.0 - will need sleeping tablets.
The faithful can rest assured that Truth always wins.
Freedom and Democracy both remain undefeated.
The author rightly sees China waiting for the Real TRUMP - unnerved.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Cary Fraser Dec 4, 2016

China recognizes that the global strategic balance has shifted in its favor and would hardly see the need to be concerned by Trump.
The cautious seldom err. Confucius
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Mark St. Angelo Dec 3, 2016

While they may be prudent, I find it difficult to believe that China's leaders are "Confucian" in any sense of that word.

I think the author's view of the impact of inexpensive imports reflects the author's economic views more than it reflects reality. While such goods have increased the purchasing power of some households, I think they have done so at the expense of the greater US economy because they have led to the reduction of jobs in the US.
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Manu Oquendo Dec 3, 2016

Many thanks to the author for her views on the subject. So far what one sees watching China from afar is a display of high quality strategic execution sustained over time.
Far superior to that of the empire. Trump is no fool either.
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Dana Charbonneau Dec 3, 2016

How does this change in light of Trump's direct communication with Taiwan?
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William Wallace Dec 2, 2016

What worries me is the repeated mantra that China's entry into the WTO has been and is a net good, when clearly studies show that the net result is a massive shift from West to East of wealth, except a the top 1%. I do NOT see China as a good-faith world leader, as it has:
1 - claimed exchange rates are an "internal" matter! (plays dirty)
2- claimed territories and occupied them illegally
3- foster North Korean madness to serve Chinese interests
Not a good player at all, and one which, Trumpist or not, Western politicians would do well to shift trade and investment heavily away from.
- Dark Chocolate Dec 2, 2016
  
  The charge of China claimed territories and occupied them illegally is absurd because China shrinks in all direction after the Communist took over. They were conceding territories left and right. South Tibet, a big chunk of territories the size of several Taiwan is invaded and occupied by India to this day.
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Dark Chocolate Dec 1, 2016

Everybody should be offended by anyone giving publicity to the Dalai Lama, not just the Chinese. Dalai Lama, far from a man of moral authority the media built him up to be, is a man of questionable characters. Thanks to Wikileaks we now know that for years the Dalai Lama has been sending orphans under his care to go to war for India against Pakistan.

http://transmissionsmedia.com/the-dark-side-of-dalai-lama/
https://followersofdorjeshugden.com/wikileaks/

The Dalai Lama is also good at lying. In fact it got so bad that even one of his supporters has to call him out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/22/opinion/22french.html

Then there is this human decency thing. For a man that styles himself as the leader of an oppressed people, you would think that if anybody who feels a certain kinship with the people in South Africa under Aparthied, it will be him. But no, he is vocal on many things but shown no support to Nelson Mandela when he was in prison. In fact he is very close to the people who oppresses Nelson Mandela.

http://www.taylor-report.com/gallery/index.php?id=5
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Armin Schmidt Dec 1, 2016

Thanks, Prof. Keyu, for giving a possibility to connect with Chinese thinking on this subject.

"... China’s leaders are remaining focused on what is really important: the need for a cooperative bilateral relationship."

The need for a cooperative bilateral relationship in my eyes amounts to a high but subordinate aim. The PS piece by Ricardo Hausmann "What makes America great" describes this very well.
A shared value system and, to get there, paralleling directions by discussion, as tried for by Western public organs like journalism to me seems consequential and, although sparsely mentioned, a major intuitively expected effect of the discourse.
I may be wrong.
- Armin Schmidt Dec 1, 2016
  
  Seems like I dig myself into a hole here.
  I believe, that if wanted, China will have such rather independent institutions as well, and that the way towards them can be peaceful, civilized and short. I got a theory in mind, it is in my account's biography.
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- Armin Schmidt Dec 1, 2016
  
  "Western" in this comment is surely misused and giving rise to dispute. I should have been writing: "more open-society"
  And journalism is present worldwide. I should have been writing: "rather independent journalism".
  
  So the comment would have read:
  "Thanks, Prof. Keyu, for giving a possibility to connect with Chinese thinking on this subject.
  
  "... China’s leaders are remaining focused on what is really important: the need for a cooperative bilateral relationship."
  
  The need for a cooperative bilateral relationship in my eyes amounts to a high but subordinate aim. The PS piece by Ricardo Hausmann "What makes America great" describes this very well.
  A shared value system and, to get there, paralleling directions by discussion, as tried for via more open-society public organs like rather independent journalism to me seems consequential and, although sparsely mentioned, a major intuitively expected effect of the discourse.
  I may be wrong."
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Michael Public Dec 1, 2016

China and the USA are like Simese twins whose joining is slowly killing them - but to attempt a separation operation has a low chance of success.

Ps: Crimea was not annexed - it seceded following a referendum with high 90% favorable vote.
- Ga Steli Dec 3, 2016
  
  The referendum did not even provide a choice for maintaining the status quo(Wikipedia). In my opinion Russia does not possess a judiciary that's independent enough to guarantee free and fair elections.
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ROHIT CHANDAVARKER Dec 1, 2016

A sense of responsibility & humility dawns on any person when thrust into power. The weight of office once Trump settles into the Resolute Desk in Oval Office will be overwhelming and campaign rhetoric might just be that, empty rhetoric.
Trump's inward looking, protectionist policies might be music to Beijing's ears. His trenchant criticism of multilateralism means the death of TPP. China-promoted RCEP might now take centrestage given the increasing support it seems to have garnered post the APEC summit in Lima. Trump's threats of hiking tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely considering a small unheralded fact, services revenues. The US service exports to China in 2015 was around $700 billion & the US ran a surplus on services of around $350 billion. Would Trump sacrifice this golden goose?
Another of Trump's complaint was the currency manipulation. Ever since Trump's election victory, the dollar has strengthened vis a vis international currencies including the yuan, making Chinese exports to US cheaper. Any tinkering on the yuan would affect goods lapped up by Trump voters.
Also the slowdown in China's growth makes it incumbent on Beijing to boost external revenues. China has issued a veiled threat that should Trump act tough Boeing would be a big loser resulting in job losses.
The proposed tax cuts to woo US businesses back into US is unlikely to succeed as these businesses require cheap labour & finance besides lower taxes. Asian nations provide for cheap input costs obviating the need for these businesses to shift back into US.
As for the strategic vision for Asia Pacific, one may reserve judgement as a lot will depend on his team. However, Obama's rebalance policy will undergo a drastic change as also reduced focus, which suits China fine.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 30, 2016

Keyu Jin says China, unlike other countries, "has remained largely unmoved" by Trump's victory. Even if "the bilateral relationship will change somewhat, it will not be fundamentally transformed. It will still be neither very good nor very bad." The author believes Trump's harsh stance on China during the campaign was merely a show, and the Chinese leadership has acted in accordance with Confucian "prudence" by remaining "neutral" in response to his election.
Deep inside China rejoices. Given his controversial victory and questionable qualification, Trump will be engulfed by his own scandals and failure, that he will have little time for China's ambition in the East and South China Seas and North Korea's nuclear aggression. There is little doubt about China's benefits, because Trump would scrap Obama's Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, that excludes Beijing, which feels snubbed and contained in a dynamic region. China also fears that the TPP would bolster American leadership in Asia, and write the rules for the 21st century.
More importantly the Chinese leadership would not be hearing any lecture on human rights from a leader who is a liar, crook, racist, misogynist and instigator. The support for Trump online - some of which has been propelled by state-controlled media, must have pleased him. He refrained from bashing China since his election and posted a video of his grand-daughter reciting a Chinese poem. That it became "an instant hit" was understandable, because many Chinese were flattered by a little white girl who spoke well Mandarin. An African American girl wouldn't do the same magic.
Obviously ordinary Chinese have access to mostly state-controlled media. They know next to nothing about Trump's obnoxious character, dubious business dealings, egregious rants etc. throughout the campaign. Instead they reviled Hillary Clinton, calling her obscene names and blaming her for the mayhem in the Middle East. Some even accused her of supporting ISIS, as allegedly "exposed in emailgate."
Trump’s tough talk on trade with China didn't faze its leadership, seeing it as rhetoric to woo the white-working class. The author says Beijing was more offended by Obama's friendliness towards Dalai Lama. It's most unlikely that Trump would extend an invitation to the Tibetan spiritual leader, even though he had wrongly accused China of hacking Clinton's emails, and being responsible for climate change. He had even vowed to "impose a 45% tariff on Chinese goods."
China's leadership is confident of who having greater leverage. The author believes poor Americans will continue to benefit from cheap Chinese imports and see them as "a godsend," as it boosts their "purchasing power." A disruption of trade would trigger a price spike, "undermining consumption, impeding economic growth, and exacerbating inequality." American manufacturing would still be disappearing, with jobs going to "Vietnam or Bangladesh, where labor costs are even lower than in China nowadays."
The author reminds Trump of the fact that "China is one of the biggest purchasers of US Treasuries, and continues to finance US consumption and investment. China may even help to finance the large infrastructure projects that Trump has promised, thereby reducing pressure on the US budget."
It's unclear whether there would be a trade war. According to NYT - "China is more vulnerable given the sheer amount of stuff it sells to America. For more than a decade, China has consistently exported about $4 worth of goods to the US for each $1 of goods that it imports. Exports to the US represent about 4 percent of the Chinese economy; American exports to China are only about two-thirds of 1 percent of the US economy."
Perhaps "Trump is unlikely to change much in terms of US economic policy, at least if he knows what’s good for him." Indeed, Trump is a hypocrite - preaching water, while drinking wine. He blasted cheap Chinese goods, but has no problem putting his name on them and selling them in his Trump Store inside the Trump Tower.
On the whole China's leadership is pleased with America's election. Trump's foreign policy will likely "please China than aggrevate it." While some Chinese who have a sense of ethics feel sorry for their American peers, Trump business empire is waiting to expand to China, with daughters and grand-daughters seeking to win the hearts of many uninformed Chinese. "China’s leaders are remaining focused on what is really important: the need for a cooperative bilateral relationship," because growth is their only means to legitimise their one-party rule, without their citizens having the right to vote for their leaders.
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Danilo Mendes Nov 30, 2016

and santa claus is coming ...
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