El superávit comercial decreciente de China

BEIJING – Durante 2010, el Congreso de los Estados Unidos (y muchos otros) criticaron a China por “manipular” su moneda a fin de conservar una ventaja para sus exportaciones y preservar de ese modo su superávit comercial. Se afirmaba que la conducta de China era la fuente del enorme desequilibrio global actual.

Sin embargo, China se negó a aceptar la culpa y rechazó las repetidas exigencias estadounidenses de llevar a cabo una revaluación importante. El tipo de cambio entre el renminbi y el dólar aumentó únicamente alrededor del 3% entre junio de 2010 y el final del año. Según un análisis utilizado por algunos economistas y políticos estadounidenses, la baja tasa de apreciación de la moneda, junto con el crecimiento del 31% de las exportaciones chinas en 2010 en comparación con 2009, debería haber ampliado el superávit comercial chino en gran medida.

De hecho, el superávit comercial chino disminuyó 6.4% en 2010, en comparación con 2009, y esa disminución viene después de la caída del 30% del superávit comercial en 2008 debido a la crisis financiera global y la recesión subsiguiente. En general, el superávit comercial de China ha disminuido un 36% en términos absolutos en dólares estadounidenses y ha caído más de la mitad (53%) en proporción al PIB en los últimos dos años. Así pues, el coeficiente del superávit en cuenta corriente frente al PIB se ha reducido al 4.6%, lo que es significativamente menor al máximo reciente del 11.3% que alcanzó en 2007.

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