Margaret Scott

La tormenta política de China

NUEVA DELHI - Asistimos a purgas de líderes de alto nivel y funcionarios provinciales jubilados que llaman en público al retiro de miembros del Politburó: es evidente que China se encuentra en una encrucijada. Su futuro ya no parece estar determinado solamente por el gran éxito de su economía, que ha convertido al país en una potencia mundial en el transcurso de apenas una generación. En lugar de ello, lo que hoy parece marcar su destino son las oscuras maquinaciones del cada vez más fracturado panorama político del país.

Basta con ser testigos de la actual lucha de poder en el período previo a los cambios de dirigentes previstos para este otoño, o de las cifras oficiales que muestran que las protestas rurales se han incrementado al mismo ritmo que el PIB. La repentina caída de Bo Xilai -y el llamado de la Provincia de Yunnan al retiro de los dos miembros del Politburó más cercanos a él- es sólo un ejemplo de la lucha interna y sin tapujos que está teniendo lugar en Zhongnanhai, el hermético complejo de gobierno en Beijing. De hecho, se dice que las disputas intestinas son tan encarnizadas que ha habido rumores, negados por el régimen, de que podría posponerse el Congreso del Partido Comunista en el que este otoño van a ser ungidos un nuevo presidente y primer ministro.

La abrupta inculpación de Bo por parte del Partido después de haber recibido alabanzas por su conducción en Chongqing ha alimentado el cinismo público sobre su bien orquestada caída y puesto al descubierto el delgado núcleo ideológico de los dirigentes. Para que China logre preservar lo que ha ganado en términos de estatura global, debe evitar un duro aterrizaje político. Por el momento, se pueden concebir por lo menos cinco escenarios diferentes.

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