China mira con frialdad al dinero caliente

PEKÍN – En China se siente la presión del ingreso a gran escala de capitales de corto plazo: su Administración Estatal de Divisas (AED) emitió un aviso a principios de mayo en el que describió un conjunto de medidas dirigidas a controlar el «dinero caliente» y reducir los riesgos externos. Las nuevas normas son ciertamente fundamentales para administrar la rápida apreciación del yuan y garantizar la exactitud de los datos comerciales. Pero, ¿serán suficientes?

Diversos datos dan cuenta de la monumental escala de los flujos entrantes. En el primer trimestre de este año, las compras de divisas por bancos chinos se dispararon hasta alcanzar una cifra récord de ¥1,2 billones ($195 miles de millones) –más del doble que el total del año pasado. Esas compras aumentaron aproximadamente ¥294,3 miles de millones entre marzo y abril, el quinto mes consecutivo de crecimiento.

Durante el mismo período, las reservas de divisas chinas incorporaron $128 mil millones –el mayor aumento trimestral desde 2011, equivalente al aumento total en 2012– y alcanzaron los $3,4 billones. Dado el superávit comercial chino de $43 mil millones y los $30 mil millones en inversión extranjera durante este período, los ingresos de capitales deben haber sido un factor significativo.

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