中国為替レートの難問

中国の、人民幣 (元) を 2.1% 切り上げ、ドル ペッグ制を廃止するという突然の決定は、米国からの過去数ヶ月にわたる重圧の成果である。この驚くべき政策変更は、中国にとっては依然として固定通貨が有利であるため、しばらくの間保留されることになりそうである。

実際に、その最適な貨幣区域についての研究が、ユーロの理論的な実地研究の実施により裏付けされた経済学者ロバート マンデルは、中国が、現在の経済発展のフェーズにおける必要不可欠な一面として、固定為替相場を維持すべきであると主張している。しかし、中国の歪んだ経済構造に目を向ければ、その為替相場制度の、日本およびその他の東アジア経済が直面してきた問題よりもさらに難しい問題が明らかになる。

東アジア経済の躍進にとって、為替相場のペッグ制が地域の輸出主体の開発モデルと良く適合する不可欠な制度であったことは明白である。しかし固定為替相場の有効性は、輸出部門の発展が、国内産業および一国の経済全体にどれだけの波及効果をもたらすことができるかにかかっている。貿易部門における成長が国内の非貿易部門成長の起爆剤となるのなら、固定為替相場が、対外的な貿易収支に対する輸入引上げの要求といった重圧を生むことはないであろう。

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