Ungereimtheiten bei Chinas Wechselkurs

Chinas unerwartete Entscheidung, den Wert des Renminbi (Yuan) um 2,1% aufzuwerten und seine Dollarbindung aufzuheben, folgt auf monatelangen Druck der USA. Diese überraschende Änderung der Währungspolitik dürfte für einige Zeit Bestand haben, denn eine stabile Währung bleibt in Chinas Interesse.

Tatsächlich behauptet der Ökonom Robert Mundell, dessen Arbeiten über optimale Währungszonen als theoretische Grundlage für die Schaffung des Euro betrachtet werden, dass China seinen festen Wechselkurs beibehalten solle. Aufgrund von Chinas verzerrter Wirtschaftsstruktur jedoch stellt sein Wechselkursregime das Land vor sehr viel schwierigere Probleme als jene, wie sie sich Japan und anderen ostasiatischen Volkswirtschaften stellten.

An andere Währungen gebundene Wechselkurse waren bisher eindeutig eine Grundvoraussetzung für den wirtschaftlichen Aufstieg Ostasiens, denn sie passen gut in das exportorientierte Wirtschaftsmodell der Region. Die Effektivität eines festen Wechselkurses wird allerdings dadurch bestimmt, wie die Entwicklungen auf dem Exportsektor die heimischen Industrien und die Volkswirtschaft als Ganze beeinflussen. Falls das Wachstum auf dem Handelssektor jenes der inländischen Nichthandelssektoren ankurbelt, dann übt ein fester Wechselkurs keinen Druck auf die Zahlungsbilanz aus, da die Nachfrage nach Importen steigt.

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