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China’s Excess-Capacity Nightmare

In sector after sector, Mao Zedong's dream of attaining higher industrial output in China than in the West has finally been realized. For Chinese central planners, however, the country's hypetrophied industrial base has become a cause for alarm rather than celebration.

SHANGHAI – Back in 1958, the year of China’s ill-fated “Great Leap Forward,” Chairman Mao had big plans for the steel industry. While production had been just over five million tons in 1957, he expected the country to catch up with or even surpass the United States by 1962, producing 80-100 million tons per year, and to reach 700 million tons per year by the mid-1970’s, making China the undisputed world leader. All this was to be accomplished using small “backyard steel furnaces” operated by ordinary people with no particular technical expertise.

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