China necesita una gran estrategia nueva

Feb 9, 2017 Minxin Pei

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – La Guerra Fría terminó en diciembre de 1991, cuando se desintegró la Unión Soviética. La era pos-Guerra Fría terminó en noviembre de 2016, cuando Donald Trump ganó la presidencia de Estados Unidos.

Resulta imposible predecir todo lo que traerá consigo la era Trump, en particular debido a la propia arbitrariedad de Trump. Pero algunas consecuencias ya son evidentes. En apenas un par de semanas, la presidencia de Trump ha cambiado drásticamente las suposiciones clave que sustentaban la gran estrategia de pos-Guerra Fría de China.

La primera suposición es ideológica. El ostensible triunfo de la democracia liberal occidental en 1989 le infundió a ese sistema una suerte de predominio. Se supuso, por lo tanto, que planteaba una amenaza existencial para el Partido Comunista Chino (PCC).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

asad lateef Feb 25, 2017

How page boy of china,Mr putin will react to this confrontation.Do china has to worry,after they Hack white house through KGB
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Stefan S Feb 11, 2017

China wastes its time flexing military muscle. Its strengths are the size and industriousness of its population, and the historical depth of its national culture. The Chinese would do best by gradually cultivating a more open society founded on Confucian values.
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j. von Hettlingen Feb 11, 2017

Minxin Pei advises China to adopt a "new grand strategy" in the Trump era. Indeed, China is perplexed by his win last November. Although it has always resented America's unipolar dominance since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, its economy benefits hugely from the "international rules-based order" and the "global public goods" the US and its allies have been providing. During his campaign Trump had vowed to focus on "America First", prompting many around the world to fear the end of the "post-Cold War era" with the US retreating from its global leadership. Trump's "capriciousness" does pose a challenge to many countries, especially America's allies, and his first weeks in office have served as a wake-up call for recalibrations of their relationship with Washington.
Since 1991 China's "grand strategy" has focused on ideological and economic "assumptions." In fact Trump's isolationist approach in foreign policy should be a boon to the Chinese Communist Party, since the CCP had seen Western liberal democray as an existential threat to its Maoism. Besides a despotic Trump wouldn't be bothered to lecture China on human rights and criticise its abuses. Yet he sees China through the prism of a zero-sum game player.
Beijing's main focus has been on "economic development" and benefits enormously from globalisation. Double-digit growth had cemented the CCP's grip on power, boosting its influence abroad. As Trump hates globalisation and trade deficits, there is fear of a trade war, based on protectionism, following high tariffs on imports to the US. China relies heavily on exports to thrive. Given the "economic interdependence" between China and the US, their "geopolitical and ideological rivalry" would have a negative impact on the world's economy "with China as one of the biggest casualties."
On the issue of "national security," the author says Beijing has reasons to worry. In the past, apart from muscle flexing and seeking to rein in China's "expansionism," the US didn't pose an "imminent threat," even though Chinese leaders worried about lagging behind militarily. "China took it almost as a given that the US would continue to place a high priority on conflict avoidance." Another sign of continuity is Trump's recent phone call with Xi Jinping, assuring that he would drop the Taiwan gambit, and not "abandon the One China policy."
But China and the US could be on dangerous collision course. Trump "has also vowed to build up US naval capabilities with the explicit goal of opposing China." His "bromance" with Putin "has only exacerbated concerns among Chinese leaders that the US is preparing to challenge China." Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist, said recently that he wouldn't rule out a war with Beijing over South China Sea, prompting its foreign secretary, Wang Yi to dismiss Bannon's remarks, saying any ‘sober-minded politician’ would know both would lose out. The problem is that neither Bannon nor Trump can be called "sober-minded." The author says, one way to distract Trump from China would be Iran. If he "decides to take on Iran and subsequently gets sucked even deeper into the Middle East quagmire, China might get some breathing room." But the world won't be better off with an all-out war in the Middle East.
China's rise and the West's decline since the 2008 financial crisis unsettled many Americans, some of whom are Trump's supporter, who blame China for their economic grievances. They might put pressure on Trump to be tough on Beijing. Littoral countries in the South China Sea complain about Chinese aggression in the region, "while the US was distracted by the Middle East’s protracted and fluid conflicts."
A recap of the above assumptions "provide some indication of the way forward for China, as it develops a new grand strategy. And yet plenty of unknowns remain." The author says - as Trump's victory shows - it is impossible to predict what his presidency will bode, because it was initially "unthinkable to many." Given his temperament, ignorance, and his eagerness to satisfy his own ego, this "may usher in a new Cold War pitting the US against China." Let's hope that it is just an "assumption." He might change his mind, if China would help promote his business there.
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Ting Mak Feb 10, 2017

China has its own agenda and needs not follows America's model. So far, it has not make major mistakes and is on track for strong continual growth. Trump is a business persom and is not a political person. His decision is based on benefit and not on political ideology. America's and China's economic interest is interdependent. The America's potential conflict with China has been p0litical in nature. Trump may change that
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Oleksandr Aleksandrovych Feb 9, 2017

It will be amusing to see China take over the torch of free market from the United States as the most globalized economy.
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Godfree Roberts Feb 9, 2017

"Given China’s dependence on exports, even the best-case scenario is likely to lead to some decline in China’s potential growth... the existing global trading regime will unravel, with China as one of the biggest casualties".

Hardly. China is less export-dependent than Canada, and far less dependent than, say, Germany.

Exports contribute 18% to China's GDP, and exports to the USA constitute 18% of that. But those percentages are based on nominal, WTO figures. China's exports to the USA contribute less than 20% of the WTO figure because most, like iPhones, contain a high proportion of American I.P.

So China's exports to the US contribute less than 1% to its GDP.

US exports to China, on the other hand, contain 100% American I.P., from genetically modified seeds to computer chips and sequencers. So the US, with its much smaller, much slower-growing economy, would probably suffer more.
- vivek iyer Feb 9, 2017
  
  Great analysis.
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