La próxima agenda de China

CAMBRIDGE – Hace poco regresé de Beijing, donde pasé una semana dialogando con funcionarios chinos y asistiendo al Foro de Desarrollo de China (CDF por su sigla en inglés), el principal encuentro anual de altos funcionarios y ejecutivos de empresas chinos y extranjeros. El gobierno chino acababa de dar a conocer su décimo tercer Plan Quinquenal y las autoridades estaban ansiosas por explicar qué significa para el futuro de China.

Si bien el último plan contiene una lista aparentemente interminable de proyectos y objetivos específicos, el nuevo tema principal este año es la "reestructuración del lado de la oferta", un término que incluye una amplia gama de políticas que apuntan a impulsar el crecimiento económico y los estándares de vida. El término "del lado de la oferta" está destinado a distinguir estas nuevas políticas de las medidas tradicionales del lado de la demanda de dinero fácil y un déficit fiscal ligeramente mayor que ya apuntan a fortalecer la actividad económica.

Un punto que ocupa un lugar preponderante en la lista de políticas del lado de la oferta es el de eliminar parte del exceso de capacidad de las empresas estatales en las industrias de acero y carbón. Esto implica la pérdida de unos cuatro millones de empleos, una cantidad que equivale aproximadamente al 0,5% de la fuerza laboral de China. El plan autoriza un fondo especial para ofrecer asistencia a aquellas personas que sigan desempleadas. Los expertos creen que se necesita un recorte de personal mucho mayor, pero las autoridades empiezan a paso lento para ver cuáles son los resultados y monitorear la respuesta de la población.

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