China debt VCG/Getty Images

中国的企业债挑战

发自华盛顿特区——虽然中国经济在最近几年有所放缓,但相对其他经济体来说仍属强劲,贡献了约1/3的全球经济增长。在其经济增长模式由投资出口向国内需求和服务转移后,其经济模式也变得更具可持续性。

在杭州 G20 峰会即将于下月召开之际,中国一直大声呼吁发达和新兴市场经济体应当做出新的结构性改革承诺以刺激增长。但中国也面临着严峻的国内风险:尤为显著的是国内信贷继续以不可持续的速度扩张,企业债务额也积累到了相当危险的程度。

根据国际货币基金组织最近发表的中国经济年度经济报告,信贷的增长几乎相当于产出量的两倍,并同时在非金融私营部门以及不断延伸且相互连接的不透明金融部门中迅速扩张。此外,虽然信贷增长按照国际标准来说极高——而这一关键指标暗示着潜在的危机——其进一步刺激经济增长的效果却不断减弱。

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