China afronta el desplome mundial

BEIJING – Durante tres decenios, China ha estado creciendo a una tasa media anual de 9,8 por ciento. La mayoría de ese tiempo, los mercados mundiales fueron favorables, sin que hubiera una importante crisis o desaceleración económicas o financieras mundiales. Sí que hubo crisis regionales, como, por ejemplo, el desorden financiero del período 1997-1998 en el Asia sudoriental o el desplome de la burbuja de la vivienda en el Japón en 1990 y la burbuja de la tecnología avanzada en 2000, pero ninguna de ellas resultó ser un grave obstáculo para el largo auge de China.

Sin embargo, en los tres últimos meses ha habido una importante desaceleración en las exportaciones, la inversión interior, la producción industrial y los ingresos fiscales de China. Parece que se avecina una importante desaceleración. ¿Persistirá el rápido crecimiento de China?

Yo creo que sí. Dentro de China la desaceleración actual es en su mayor parte de origen interno. Desde 2004, el Gobierno de China ha procurado enfriar una economía recalentada reduciendo la tasa de crecimiento del 12 por ciento al 8-9 por ciento, más sostenible. Incluso empezó a gravar las exportaciones para reducir el superávit comercial.

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