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How Fast Will China Grow?

BEIJING – In the 35 years since China’s transition to a market economy began, the country has grown at an average rate of 9.8% – an explosive and unprecedented rise. But there are signs that the Chinese miracle is coming to an end – or at least that the country’s economic growth is slowing. China’s growth rate has been falling since the first quarter of 2010. In 2014, it was a relatively anemic 7.4%.

China’s economic growth is likely to continue to face stiff headwinds this year as well, at least when compared to previous decades. As policymakers draw up the country’s 13th five-year plan, they will grapple with a fundamental question: How fast can China expect to grow?