我们所信仰的魅力

发自剑桥——世界上两大独裁国家都已预定在2012年实现权力交接。在中国,习近平将接替胡锦涛就任国家主席,俄罗斯总理普京则声明自己将从梅德韦杰夫手中重新接过总统宝座。而全球各民主国家的政治结局则难以逆料。法国总统萨科齐的连任之路困难重重,美国总统奥巴马也难言轻松。

在2008年美国总统大选上,媒体告诉我们奥巴马之所以获胜是因为他有“魅力”——某种能激发迷恋和忠诚的特殊力量。如果真是如此,那为什么仅仅四年之后连任就变得如此艰难?一位领导人是否会丧失自身的魅力?这些魅力是来自于其个人,追随者,还是当时的特定情况?对此学术研究认为:这三点都可能存在。

令人吃惊的是,魅力是难以事先测定的。最近有项调查认为我们对魅力领袖究竟是何人“所知甚少”。一位美国政治顾问迪克·莫里斯(Dick Morris)凭经验总结说:“魅力是政治特征中最难以捉摸的部分,因为它并不是任何实质性的存在;只有在一位候选人通过勤奋和某些巧妙的议题将其创造出来后,它才会出现于我们的观念之中。”同样,商业媒体也曾用“魅力”这个词来形容许多企业CEO,但当利润下跌时,这个标签也就无影无踪了。

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