Matteo Renzi campaigning for constitutional reform NurPhoto/Getty Images

الفرار من إيطاليا

كمبريدج ــ في الرابع من ديسمبر/كانون الأول، يُعطي الاستفتاء في إيطاليا الناخبين الفرصة لقبول أو رفض ما اعتبره بعض المراقبين الإصلاحات الدستورية الأكثر شمولا منذ إلغاء النظام الملكي مع نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية. ومع ذلك فربما يفسر لنا تأييد أحزاب المعارضة الثلاثة في إيطاليا للخروج من منطقة اليورو لماذا وَعَد رئيس الوزراء ماتيو رينزي بالاستقالة إذا رفض الناخبون الإصلاحات.

من المفهوم، بعد الانتصار المفاجئ في يونيو/حزيران لحملة "الخروج" في استفتاء المملكة المتحدة على الخروج من الاتحاد الأوروبي، وفوز دونالد ترامب في الحملة الرئاسية في الولايات المتحدة، أن لا يثق أحد في نتائج استطلاعات الرأي السابقة للتصويت الإيطالي. ولكن هناك استطلاع لحظي مزعج لمشاعر المستثمرين: فقد تسارع هروب رؤوس الأموال من إيطاليا هذا العام.

وهناك سابقة حديثة لهذا. ففي صيف عام 2015، كان تخلف اليونان لفترة وجيزة عن سداد قرض صندوق النقد الدولي، وفرض الضوابط على رأس المال والقيود على سحب الودائع، في قلب الدراما التي شهدتها منطقة اليورو. وارتفعت حِدة التوترات بين الحكومتين اليونانية والألمانية، وتصاعدت التكهنات حول ما إذا كانت اليونان ستبقى في منطقة اليورو.

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