Paul Lachine

意大利有的救吗?

米兰——经济学家马里奥·蒙蒂的新政府入主意大利。不管对意大利、对欧洲还是对全球经济来说,这都是一个生死存亡之秋。如果改革不力、公共财政崩溃而增长萎靡持续,意大利人将会感到维持欧元区成员国资格成本大于收益,意大利可能退出欧元区。而意大利叛离共同货币将动摇欧元区的核心,这与像希腊这样的小国绝然不同。

意大利是一个大国,年GDP超过2万亿美元。意大利的公共债务相当于GDP的120%,即大约2.4万亿美元,其中不包括养老体系负债,该负债需要作重大调整以反映人口老龄化和寿命的增加。意大利已成为世界第三大主权债务市场。

但利率的升高大大加重了意大利的债务维持负担,使其在政治上变得不可持续。此外,意大利必须在未来6个月内获得2 750亿欧元的债务再融资,而投资者正在试图减少对意大利的风险暴露,这使得意大利10年期国债收益率畸高,目前已经超过了7%。

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