L'Inde survivra-t-elle à la mondialisation ?

Pendant les longues années qui ont suivi l'indépendance de 1947, l'Inde est restée un grand pays pauvre. Ses gouvernements successifs ont adopté des politiques qui faisait de l'État le moteur de la croissance et du développement tout en restreignant strictement les interactions économiques avec le reste du monde.

La population indienne est aujourd'hui bien plus importante et toujours pauvre, mais plus aussi pauvre qu'elle aurait pu l'être. Il y a plus de dix ans, elle s'est embarquée sur un nouveau chemin qui a permis une croissance plus rapide et une diminution de la pauvreté. Le commerce extérieur s'est libéralisé et de nombreuses barrières gouvernementales empêchant les investissements domestiques ont été levées. Fait encore plus significatif, l'état d'esprit des intellectuels et des décideurs a évolué en faveur d'une approche orientée vers l'économie de marché favorisant même une meilleure intégration avec l'économie mondiale.

Ceci représente une avancée essentielle pour le développement de l'Inde. Comme le précisait le prix Nobel James Heckman dans sa récente analyse des performances économiques faibles de l'Allemagne après la Réunification, les nouveaux développements technologiques et commerciaux ont faits monter le coût du maintien du statu quo. Selon Heckman, « les vainqueurs des nouvelles générations des échanges internationaux seront les pays qui pourront agir avec flexibilité grâce à leur masse salarial éduquée ».

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