Jon Krause

Les marchés émergents : sauveurs de l’économie mondiale ?

MILAN – Au cours des deux dernières années, les pays industrialisés ont connu de graves crises d’instabilité financière. En ce moment, les soucis croissants qui les accablent concernent la dette souveraine et un taux de chômage élevé. Les économies émergentes quant à elles, autrefois considérées comme plus vulnérables, ont fait preuve d’une remarquable résilience. Tandis que la croissance revient à des niveaux pré-crise, la performance de la Chine, de l’Inde et du Brésil sont un moteur d’expansion important pour l’économie mondiale.

Le taux de croissance élevé et la stabilité financière des pays émergents contribuent à faciliter les ajustements massifs auxquels les pays industrialisés sont confrontés. Or, cette croissance implique de grosses répercussions sur le long terme. Si le schéma actuel se maintient, l’économie du monde sera transformée de manière permanente. Dans ce cas précis, il ne faudra pas plus d’une décennie pour que la part du PIB mondial générée par certaines économies en développement passe la barre des 50 % dans les prix du marché.

Il convient donc de savoir si l’on peut soutenir cette phase de croissance radicale. La réponse est double. L’une dépend de la capacité des pays émergents à gérer leur propre réussite. La seconde dépend de la mesure dans laquelle l’économie mondiale peut s’adapter à cette réussite. La réponse à la première question est rassurante ; la réponse à la seconde ne l’est pas.

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