造与倒

伯克利——

2000年代中期,美国出现了建筑繁荣。从2003年到2006年,年建筑支出上升到了远高于产期趋势的水平。因此,从2007年初开始,美国实际上已步入了过度建设阶段:建筑支出高出长期趋势水平达3000亿美元之巨。

当这些大楼被造好时,人们还预期它们可以卖个好价钱,至少比造价要搞。但它们的盈利能力所依据的两大基础——长期真实风险利率永远下跌以及人们对房地产作为一种资产类型永远乐观——却都是空中楼阁,后来都崩溃了。

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