Der Aufbau eines größeren Europas

MOSKAU – Das größere Europa steht an einem Scheideweg. Zwanzig Jahre nach dem Fall des Eisernen Vorhangs ist es noch immer geteilt und außerstande sich zu einer globalen Kraft zu vereinigen. Alle drei Teile des größeren Europas – Russland, die Europäische Union und die Länder, die zwischen beiden liegen – befinden sich in einer Krise. Die Ursachen und Ausprägungen dieser Krisen unterscheiden sich, aber die Konsequenzen sind fast identisch.

Russland hat die Grenzen des Wachstums erreicht, das von seinem postkommunistischen Wiederaufbau herrührte. Heutzutage hat es seine staatlichen Institutionen gestärkt, den wirtschaftlichen Niedergang überwunden und sich erneut als wichtigen Akteur in der Weltpolitik positioniert.

Russlands Zukunft ist dennoch fraglich. Die sowjetischen Ressourcen sind sowohl in Bezug auf Infrastruktur als auch Ideologie erschöpft. Die Wirtschaft des Landes ist nach wie vor nicht in der Lage, die relativ hohen Einnahmen aus Energieexporten optimal zu nutzen. Die russische Gesellschaft und ihre Führungsköpfe haben keine klare Vision für die Zukunft, und der Bevölkerungsrückgang gibt wenig Anlass zur Hoffnung auf eine rasche und nachhaltige Wende. So liegt es nahe, dass Russland, unfähig mit den sich schnell entwickelnden Ländern zu konkurrieren, seine Bemühungen auf den Schutz seiner schwindenden Wirtschaftsgüter wird richten müssen.

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