British flags London mall taxi Luke Hayter/Flickr

脆弱的英国

伦敦—在未来一年中,哪个欧洲国家面临最大的政治动荡和金融混乱风险?在5月7日英国大选还有不到一周之际,答案既明显又令人震惊。作为曾经欧元危机中的政治和经济稳定的避风港,英国即将成为欧盟政治局面最难预测的成员国。

事实上,连续性几乎可以确定从选举结果中排除。除非民调结果出现英国历史上最大程度的不准确性,否则组成执政联盟的两党——首相卡梅伦的保守党和自由民主党——几乎不可能赢得联合议会多数席位。

一个可能性——根据民调结果,这一可能性略高于50%——是英国,撒切尔主义的诞生地和欧盟新自由主义经济学的旗帜,很快就会出现一个决心实施自20世纪70年代以来最大增税计划的工党政府。此外,拜英国选举制度的特殊性和苏格兰和威尔士民族主义的兴起所赐,工党政府能否生存下去取决于经济日程更加激进、以分裂英国为目标的政党的支持。

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