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为何英国脱欧会损害欧洲

发自柏林——时间正在分分秒秒地迈向3月29日——也正是英国退出欧盟的日子。无论这场脱欧是“软”或“硬”,英国都将迎来一场严重经济动荡。但这个国家曾在更大的危机中幸存下来,也必定会在某个时点克服本次危机。对我来说,真正的问题在于英国脱欧对欧洲的未来意味着什么。

“欧洲理想”几乎肯定会延续下去。欧盟不会在英国脱欧后分崩离析,并将克服英国脱欧带来的经济影响。但英国脱欧将以欧洲人目前似乎无法掌控的方式损害欧洲在世界上所扮演的角色。特朗普政府最近调低欧盟驻华盛顿代表团外交地位的决定似乎就预示着即将到来的状况。

英国脱欧所处的地缘政治背景不容忽视,并可能在决定其对欧盟的影响方面发挥重要作用。而其中最突出的事实莫过于世界的政治和经济均势正在从大西洋转向太平洋——这一趋势不能只归咎于像特朗普这类民粹主义者。毕竟美国前总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)曾将美国称为太平洋而非大西洋国家,而他的前任一直将美国称为“跨大西洋”行动者。虽然我们眼下或许生活在一个缺乏单一势力去承担全球责任的“G-0”世界,但明天可能会迎来一个美国和中国争夺全球统治地位的G-2世界。

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