Brazilská institucionální nejistota

SÃO PAULO – Přípravy Brazilců na hlasování ve druhém kole prezidentských voleb, které proběhne 26. října, bedlivě sledují mezinárodní investoři. Volba nejenže rozhodne, kdo bude příštím prezidentem země, ale také může určit budoucnost Brazilské centrální banky (BCB), a tudíž makroekonomickou trajektorii země.

Zatímco úřadující prezidentka Dilma Rousseffová podporuje stávající institucionální rámec BCB, její soupeři prohlašují, že měnovou politiku sužuje politické vměšování, které by se mělo nejlépe vyřešit posílením autonomie BCB. Návrh reformy, která by omezila prostor pro politické vměšování a současně zajistila větší zodpovědnost a upevnila finanční stabilitu, však žádný z kandidátů dosud nepředložil. Má-li si Brazílie zachovat statný a stabilní hospodářský růst, centrální banka bude potřebovat úpravy od základů.

Měnová politika už dlouho v brazilské politice hraje významnou úlohu. Během demokratizačního procesu 80. a 90. let se jedna vláda za druhou snažila zkrotit hyperinflaci, která v roce 1993 dosáhla 2477 %. Realizací plánu na zavedení realu, spuštěného roku 1994, se hned v dalším roce podařilo roční růst cen stlačit na „přijatelných“ 22 %. Na vlně úspěchu byl tvůrce plánu, bývalý ministr hospodářství Fernando Henrique Cardoso, dvakrát zvolen prezidentem (v letech 1994 a 1998), což dalo jasně najevo obavu voličů o cenovou stabilitu.

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