巴西的制度摇摆

圣保罗—国际投资者正在密切关注将于10月26日举行的巴西总统选举第二轮投票。巴西人的选票不但将决定下一任总统;也许还将决定巴西中央银行的未来,从而也将决定巴西宏观经济的轨迹。

现任总统罗塞夫支持巴西央行当前的制度框架,但反对货币政策受政治干预、最好的解决办法是授予巴西央行更大自主权的主张。但两名候选人都没有提出减少政治干预程度、同时又确保更大的可问责性和促进金融稳定的改革方案。如果巴西想要保持强劲稳定的经济增长,其中央银行就必须进行大修。

在巴西政坛,货币政策长期扮演着重要角色。20世纪八九十年代民主化过程中,历任政府试图驯服恶性通胀(1993年曾达到2,477%)。1994年实施的“里亚尔计划”成功地在第二年将年度价格涨幅抑制在“可接受”的22%。凭借该计划成功的东风,其提出者、前经济部长卡多佐连续两次当选总统(1994年和1998年),彰显出选民对价格稳定的重视。

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