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Le salut du Brésil passera par le FMI

MONTEVIDEO –  L’économie brésilienne est actuellement en soins intensifs. L’accentuation de la crise politique qui affecte le pays – une procédure d’impeachment ayant désormais été initiée à l’encontre de la présidente Dilma Rousseff, à qui l’on reproche d’avoir effectué des manœuvres comptables irrégulières afin de dissimuler l’ampleur du déficit budgétaire – vient toutefois soulever de sérieuses questions quant à savoir qui pourra administrer à l’économie le traitement nécessaire.

La situation est de toute évidence préoccupante : production en baisse, diminution des recettes fiscales, et déficit budgétaire supérieur à 9 % du PIB. Intervient également une inflation à deux chiffres, qui contraint la banque centrale à élever les taux d’intérêt – approche pourtant intenable, compte tenu d’une aggravation de la récession, ainsi que de l’explosion des coûts de service d’une dette brésilienne rapidement croissante.

En effet, en raison de la vitesse à laquelle se détériore la solvabilité du Brésil, les différentiels de taux d’intérêt sur sa dette souveraine atteignent actuellement des niveaux comparables à ceux de l’Argentine. Quant à sa position de 370 milliards $ en termes de réserves internationales, qui semblait autrefois extrêmement solide, elle apparaît désormais de plus en plus vulnérable. Lorsque l’on déduit la valeur nominale des swaps de change (115 milliards $), la part de dette publique à court terme (étrangère et domestique) couverte par les réserves internationales se situe en-dessous du seuil critique des 100 %.

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