Wie beängstigend ist der Anleihenmarkt?

NEW HAVEN – Die Preise langfristiger Staatsanleihen sind in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen (was bedeutet, dass ihre Rendite stark gefallen ist). In den Vereinigten Staaten hat die Rendite 30-jähriger Staatsanleihen am 30. Januar mit 2,25% ein Rekordtief erreicht (seit Beginn der Federal-Reserve-Serie 1972). Am selben Tag fiel der Ertrag der britischen 30-Jahres-Anleihe auf 2,04%. Die japanische Anleihe mit 20-jähriger Laufzeit erzielte am 20. Januar nur noch 0,87%.

Diese Erträge haben sich seitdem etwas erhöht, bleiben aber auf außergewöhnlich niedrigem Niveau. Dass Menschen ihr Geld für 20 bis 30 Jahre anlegen, um weniger oder kaum mehr zu bekommen als die 2%-Zielinflationsrate der Zentralbanken, ist verwunderlich – und nicht nachhaltig. Während also der Anleihenmarkt reif für eine dramatische Korrektur erscheint, fragen sich viele, ob ein Crash dort auch Märkte für andere langfristige Anlagen wie den Immobilien- oder Aktienmarkt beeinträchtigen könnte.

Diese Frage höre ich bei Seminaren oder Konferenzen immer wieder. Immerhin gestalten die Teilnehmer am Immobilien- und Aktienmarkt die Preise mit Blick auf diejenigen am Anleihenmarkt, also scheint die Ansteckung eines Langfristmarktes durch einen anderen durchaus möglich.

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