债券市场有多可怕

纽黑文—近几年来,长期政府债券价格价格十分高(也就是说收益率十分低)。在美国,30年国债收益率在1月30日创下了2.25%的历史低点(自1972年美联储系列债券诞生以来)。1月20日日本20年政府债券收益率低达0.87%。

此后,这些收益率均略有回升,但仍然非常低。这令人奇怪,也不可持续——人们锁定他们的资金20年或30年,还赚不到利息或赚不到比央行2%的年度通胀目标更高的利息。因此,债券市场似乎即将迎来重大调整,许多人认为可能发生市场崩盘,拉低其他长期资产如房地产和股票的价格。

我在各种讨论班和会议上一再提出这一问题。毕竟,房产和股票市场的参与者参照债券市场价格观点确定价格,因此从一种长期市场到另一种长期市场的传染可能性相当大。

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