La trampa de la política climática

ROMA – Las políticas actuales para combatir el cambio climático cuestan mucho más que los beneficios que producen. Por desgracia, las malas opciones elegidas a menudo hacen que esas políticas sean todavía menos rentables.

Consideremos la política 20-20 de la Unión Europea, que tiene como meta para 2020 reducir 20% las emisiones de CO2 con respecto a los niveles de los años noventa. Es importante analizar este enfoque, no solo porque la UE está emprendiendo la  política climática más importante y más amplia de todo el mundo, sino también porque otras políticas sobre el clima tienen fallas semejantes.

La manera más eficaz en términos de costo de alcanzar la meta de reducción de 20% sería con la operación de un mercado único del carbono de la UE, que le costaría a esta organización alrededor de 96 mil millones de dólares anuales para 2020. Sin embargo, los beneficios para el mundo serían mucho menores. En efecto, la única evaluación revisada inter pares de la política climática de la UE estima que dicha política puede evitar daños relacionados con el clima  en aproximadamente 10 mil millones de dólares por año. Así pues, por cada dólar gastado, la UE dejaría de gastar diez centavos de daños.

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