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Politics

Hvorfor Biden er bedre enn Trump for den amerikanske økonomien

Sep 29, 2020 Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – Joe Biden har et stort forsprang i meningsmålingene fram mot presidentvalget i november. Samtidig har presidenten et lite forsprang i spørsmålet om hvilken kandidat som vil være best for den amerikanske økonomien. Dette til tross for at Trump har håndtert pandemien på en så dårlig måte at økonomien er enda svakere enn det den ellers ville ha vært.

Takket være Trump står USA for rundt 20 % av alle registrerte koronadødsfall i verden, selv om landet kun huser 4 % av jordas befolkning. Dette er ytterst skammelig, særlig med tanke på USAs avanserte (om enn kostbare) helsesystem.

Antagelsen om at Republikanere er bedre skikket enn Demokrater til å ta hånd om økonomien er en seiglivet myte. I boken Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy fra 1997 viser den anerkjente økonomen Alberto Alesina (som gikk bort tidligere i år) og jeg at den amerikanske økonomien i mange tilfeller har hatt sterkere økonomisk vekst og lavere arbeidsledighet under demokratiske administrasjoner enn med republikanske presidenter. Utviklingen i aksjemarkedet har også i mange tilfeller vært sterkere.

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Nouriel Roubini

Writing for PS since 2007
181 Commentaries

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 30 Comments on this article

Ben Leet Oct 5, 2020

The RAND Corporation report of Sept. 2020 states that the average worker yearly income could be $92,000 instead of $50,000. Since 1975 when it was $42,000 it has risen by 19% while the entire economy on a per capita basis increased by 118%. Trump is an economic disaster, Biden will be only somewhat better. The nation needs an increase in the minimum wage, a doubling of the Earned Income Tax Credit, and stronger power to labor unions. Inequality is at historical highs. Mexico is the model we are pursuing, and they have a homicide record of 80,000 per year with a population one third of the U.S.. In 2010 N. Roubini published a paper "The Way Forward" in which he called for public jobs and infrastructure development, it's time for that again.
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Robert REYNOLDS Oct 4, 2020

"Why Biden Is Better Than Trump for the Economy".
The truth is - Larry, Curly and Moe would be better for the economy (and America) than the narcissistic, incompetent, "very stable genius".
- Andrew Zege Oct 4, 2020
  
  Who wrote this article? Is that honestly Noriel Roubini or is it a leaflet from Biden junior staffer? US did pretty bad with COVID, but in line or better than other rich western states -- Spain, UK, Italy. Did Trump mismanage them too or maybe there are deeper common reasons? And all this talk about economy growing better under Democrats is preposterous. Economic policies take long time to pass and they take long time to work, professor knows this perfectly well. As well as the fact that attribution of polices solely to a president is questionable. Did Clinton balance the budget with his liberal tax hikes or was it republican Congress under Gingrich who was elected with specific program to balance the budget? The talk about market being up in anticipation of intellectual might of Biden&Co reads like its Trump talking. Are you kidding? I read a lot of professor Roubini to know that he knows that a ton of deregulation and regulation at the heart of 2008 crisis was the work of democrats. Roosevelt FDIC mixed with Clinton's repeal of Glass Seagall was the bomb that blew up in 2008, the rest was details.
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Lothar Baier Oct 2, 2020

all i hear is biden , the intent of course is to keep the focus on the shiny object joe biden so people dont pay attention to what comes with him !
Biden sells because he reflects the image of a nice , a little bit naive old man who is right in the middle of the political aisle , eager to work with anyone and has the record to prove it , many democrats and some republicans are in love with this image and as a result are willing to throw caution to the wind .
But here are a few things to consider : first off biden is a proven turncoat , he has history of changing his positions to whatever he thinks suits him best , his track record of bipartisan efforts is not all that great in fact it is pure fiction , biden has made no serious efforts yo court trump voters nor did he make any announcements thar indicate that he wants to unite people and reach accross the aisle , he keeps his jude list secret and people he suggested he was going to tap for his cabinet are all to the left and not one single centrist ! His pick of a VP even further underscores his shift to the left !
Biden made a faustian bargain with mephisto sanders and as soon as elected the debt will come due and biden willingly will pay up by filling his cabinet and key posts with leftists , dare to imagine Elizabeth warren as treasury secretary , AOC in charge of the EPA , Sanders as labor secretary or pete buttigieg as defense secretary ? sky is the limit and lets not forget that if biden were to pass away or being removed from office by a house ruled by leftists harris would be president and pelosi VP
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carlos gonzalez Oct 2, 2020

After 8 years of Obama we should all now understand that increasing government transfer payments is not economic growth.
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Lothar Baier Oct 2, 2020

So a president who wants to lock down the economy , shift the country left by packing the courts and filling cabinet posts with leftwing radicals id good for the economy ! good joke
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Lothar Baier Oct 2, 2020

i never laughed so hard in my life ! the author surely has a political bias and does not even try to hide it !
While economic achievements are often attributed to the president one has to look at the big picture which means who controlled congress , the economy usually does better if congress is controlled by republicans even if the president is a democrat because companies see congress as a shield from presidential overreach in regards to regulation
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packardday Oct 2, 2020

Follow the money!
Biden’s biggest donors are not contributing out of any especially overdeveloped sense of their needing to promote Jeffersonian democracy across the fruited plaines. Not at all. Big money buys access and influence to protect one’s personal wealth. That is the game in a nutshell.
It follows that you should consider what will be good for the likes of Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Tim Cooke, the K Street military industrial complex clients, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family will also benefit you as a small investor as well. Money will always talk in American politics while BLM/Antifa BS will continue to walk. Oh, and God bless America too...ehhh?
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Ted Peters Oct 2, 2020

And most importantly, especially those living in NYC, the Dems will bail out the deeply indebted blue states and open the borders for Chinese goods to make life better for the elites living on the coasts. I mean, who needs a good economy in flyover country?
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Keith Roberts Oct 1, 2020

If the Biden administration cracks down on tax avoidance in the US, and gains international agreement on eliminating tax refuges, revenues would greatly increase, perhaps by as much as Biden needs to start reducing deficits. Biden has to keep in mind that the vast majority of US voters are basically happy with their situations, and averse to tax increases aiming to benefit the unfortunate minority. Democrats always aim their appeal at that minority, but while I share that sympathy, those who count politically are mostly not part of that unhappy minority.
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David Altman Oct 1, 2020

POST-REAGAN U.S. ECONOMY

Nobody that has followed the Left's economic predictions and policies since Ronald Reagan was elected President is unaware that the Left's policies generally involve economy-stifling higher taxes and new regulation. President Ronald Reagan and Fed Chairmen Volker and Greenspan's deregulation and tax-reduction policies were vehemently criticized and opposed by the Left--as were (Democrat) President Bill Clinton's regulation and Welfare reforms. In virtually every case, the Left was wrong. Joe Biden's, a Democratic politician since the 1970s, voting record has been wrong on virtually every economic issue for the last FIFTY (50!) years.
- P. Kamath Oct 1, 2020
  
  POTUS Trump has already shown who will continue to remain king of the swamp and culture of corruption will continue!
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Michael Public Sep 30, 2020

"But a higher tax rate would result in only a modest hit to corporate profits" That would depend greatly on the new rate - in the UAE 55% is the corporate tax rate.
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Michael Public Sep 30, 2020

And how exactly are stock market movements and budget deficits economic indicators? The former is speculator sentiment which is as driven by easy money availability as easily as by factory production. The later has nothing to do with the economy at all and everything to do with politics.
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Michael Public Sep 30, 2020

But Nouriel - causality. It could be argued that the cause of a recession comes from years before - and may be unrelated to the president. For me personally the cause of 2008 was almost certainly Alan Greenspan's ideas on interest rates, as he half admitted himself. For me, the cause of 2020 is that Obama never bled the banks' shareholders - instead signaling that major losses following a crash will go the taxpayer - creating a major moral hazard in the financial system - a virus was just the spark that lit the bonfire stacked high by such perverse speculation incentives.
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Leo Arouet Sep 30, 2020

True, added to all this must be added the trillion dollar wars of Republican George W. Bush.
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Per Kurowski Sep 29, 2020

“loose regulatory policies lead to financial crises and recessions”

Idiotic regulatory policies, like current risk weighted bank capital requirements based on that what’s perceived as risky is more dangerous to our bank systems than what’s perceived (or decreed or concocted) as safe, puts financial crisis/Minsky moments on steroids.

http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2019/03/my-letter-to-financial-stability-board.html
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Jonathan Engel Sep 29, 2020

Seems to me that the seeds of the major recession of 2008 was the junk mortgage bond issue, and there is absolutely no doubt that this was generated by President Clinton's initially much resisted push on "Main Street" banks to lend without (prudent) limit to purchasers of real estate, through the securitization of such loans and their conversion into investment bonds through various guarantee mechanisms. It is utterly unfair to attribute this to another subsequent administration.
- Gerald O'Connell Oct 1, 2020
  
  Except, of course, that the subsequent administration did nothing to tighten regulatory controls...
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alex Finch Sep 29, 2020

If I’m not mistaken during a public discussion in 2009 between Professor Robert Shiller and Professor Roubini both were asked whether cash or shares were a better option at that time. Perma-bear Shiller actually said he would advise people to start buying shares. Roubini’s advice was to stay in cash. Since then the DOW has tripled in value. YOU COULD NOT GET IT ANY MORE WRONG! Now he wants you to believe the markets will rise under Biden. If they do, I’ll be taking the opportunity and selling. I live in Europe and know where Socialism will lead.
- Lester Soss Sep 30, 2020
  
  In the last 8 months, Professor Roubini has been spot on in his analysis of both how Trump would fail to deal with the pandemic and the economic consequences of it. His analysis stands in sharp contrast to Kudlow et.al. who have been consistently wrong on everything for the last ten years (cf. statements on inflation, fiscal stimulus, spread of covid, severity of covid, tariffs, balance of payments, climate change, etc.)
  
  Those who support Trump make the common mistake of thinking that the rise of "FANG" stock is equivalent to a rise in the economy. It's not.
  - alex Finch Sep 30, 2020
    
    Just take a look at the giant German steel company Thyssenkrupp to see what a mess Socialists can create. The publicly traded, but still union controlled company promised back in 2009 to improve it’s profitability. While it’s bloated workforce of 160.000 remained constant, it’s net equity fell from €9.5 billion in 2009, down to NIL in 2020. Now it’s board is warning of a “bloodbath” in job losses without billions of euros of immediate government subsidizes. Unions are warning that without a steel industry manufacturing in Europe would collapse. Socialism in Europe has created a workforce dependent on Zombie businesses, with huge export volumes but no profits, a falling standard of living and stagnation, propped up by ever more taxes. Democrats are selling people fool’s gold.
    - Denis Tossan Oct 1, 2020
      
      You cannot so willy-nilly transfer the ills of Europe to the US. Nor can you put a single label, "socialism", so highly tainted and demonized by US capitalists, to wipe out earnest efforts to correct Trump's stupidity and selfish acts to buy votes at the long term expense of the American economy.
      - alex Finch Oct 1, 2020
        
        America will become a centrally government-controlled economy under Biden, like the EU, like China. That’s your future. The wealth will be more evenly distributed, but the cake being shared will only be half the size. People will feel happier knowing they get a bigger share, even though in absolute terms it’s less. That’s the magic of socialism, you get less, but think you are getting more. The youth in Europe have no ambition, they say why bother when you’ll be really NO better off than the lazy 10% at the bottom? My advice, learn to shut up under the socialists, relax and become a sheep, with people like AOC and her cronies controlling everything (the banks, the media, healthcare). I live in Austria where socialism has ruled for decades. Five hour waiting times at the hospital, even with an appointment, is not unusual, and I pay $5.000 a year health insurance. Written complaints to management are simply ignored. And you thought Trump was bad.
        
        Denis Tossan Oct 1, 2020
        
        So sorry to hear your plight with socialism in Austria. Would you move to the US and think that's better?
        
        alex Finch Oct 1, 2020
        
        Let me explain something. I left socialist Europe over 30 years ago out of frustration, moved to Australia, borrowed a lot of money and built up an award winning hotel; then I owned one of the busiest cafes in Sydney (according to our coffee supplier Nestle). Hired many many people. Socialist Europe is a great place to retire, but a young person will never ever have the opportunities in Europe, that a capitalist economy like Australia or America can offer. A 24-year old once applied for a kitchen-hand job at my hotel. I said there are 3 years missing in your resume. He told me he spent the previous 3 years in jail for car stealing and violence. I said, ok come on Saturday for a trial. He never turned up. America has lots of people like that. The opportunities are there. America and Australia have a problem with violence, which I’m convinced starts at school. There is very little violence in Europe, especially at school (I never witnessed a single fight in 4 years while attending school in Frankfurt Germany). You think that changing the economy in America will fix the violence. It won’t. Look at where the violence is, it’s in the Democrats cities. AOC - It’s all those greedy billionaires fault. Once Biden wins, they will suddenly all turn up for work, it will be like a miracle. No, you will only make it harder for young people to get ahead, and the violence will probably get worse.
        
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- rlippa Sep 29, 2020
  
  Alex, the choice between almost anything and Trump is "almost anything."
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Hvorfor Biden er bedre enn Trump for den amerikanske økonomien

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