重新想象中国的城镇未来

北京—大约1亿中国人生活于极端贫困之下,大约2.75亿人每日开销不到2美元。绝大部分中国穷人生活在农村地区,并且大部分希望获得更美好的城市生活——在城市中更容易找到薪水丰厚的工作。事实上,过去三十五年来,令人瞩目的五亿中国人实现了这一愿望,中国城镇人口比重从1980年的不到20%增加到今天的一半。到2030年,70%的中国人将生活在城市中。

毫无疑问,城镇化支撑了中国令人瞩目的增长和快速经济转型。其城市供应了廉价土地和充足的劳动力,而地方政府也急切地想吸引投资、创造就业。

但制约因素正在浮现。中国主要靠投资和出口推动的增长模式正在失去动力。城镇扩张和拥堵正在蔓延,这加剧了认为失地补偿太少的农民的不安,而他们的土地已成为地方政府债务(目前占GDP的30%)的重要抵押品来源。

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