Margaret Scott

Prohíban el bono común

FRANCFORT – Con la agudización de la crisis financiera global, los diferenciales entre los bonos gubernamentales de diferentes países de la Unión Monetaria Europea (UME) durante un tiempo se ampliaron drásticamente. En relación a los bonos alemanes, los diferenciales en febrero de rentabilidad del mercado secundario de los bonos gubernamentales con vencimientos cercanos a los diez años eran de 141 puntos base para Italia, 257 para Grecia y 252 para Irlanda, comparado con apenas 32, 84 y 25 puntos base, respectivamente, en 2000.

En los primeros años de la UME, las tasas de interés a largo plazo en los países de la eurozona en mayor o menor medida convergían a los niveles bajos registrados en países como Francia, Alemania y Holanda antes de la introducción del euro. Italia y Grecia experimentaban una enorme reducción del costo que implicaba servir su deuda pública en comparación con los días previos a la UME. Para mucha gente, la introducción del euro significó no sólo que el riesgo monetario -es decir, el riesgo de devaluación- había desaparecido, sino también que todos los miembros de la zona del euro ahora pertenecían a un área económica de estabilidad monetaria y, gracias a la disciplina del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento, de estabilidad fiscal.

Es más, antes de la crisis, las diferencias en las tasas de interés a largo plazo entre los miembros de la UME eran de aproximadamente 25 puntos base, a pesar de los desarrollos fiscales desfavorables en algunos países de la UME. Pero hoy, los países con crecientes déficits presupuestarios, como Irlanda, junto con aquellos países con altos niveles de deuda pública, como Grecia e Italia, corren el riesgo de pagar tasas sustancialmente más elevadas por sus bonos gubernamentales. Los inversores reacios al riesgo tal vez hoy exijan mayores primas de riesgo para comprar bonos de países considerados como deudores débiles. Por otra parte, las tasas de interés a largo plazo en los países con posiciones fiscales más sólidas -Francia, Alemania y Finlandia- han experimentado tasas bajas como consecuencia de una "fuga hacia la calidad".

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