Jon Krause

Come bilanciare gli elevati risparmi della Cina

PECHINO – Il tasso di risparmio della Cina è stato molto elevato negli ultimi anni, con un valore pari al 52% del PIL nel 2008 (l’ultimo anno per il quale sono disponibili le statistiche), ed è stato spesso considerato responsabile degli odierni squilibri globali. Secondo la saggezza convenzionale, i paesi che risparmiano eccessivamente sono i più propensi ad esportare, creando così elevati surplus nella bilancia commerciale e aumentando le riserve di valuta estera.

Questo non è però sempre vero. Ad esempio, se risparmio $100, ma allo stesso tempo investo $100 nelle immobilizzazioni delle mie aziende, sono “bilanciato internamente” e non incorro in un surplus di esportazioni con nessuno.

Tale esempio spiega la recente situazione economica della Cina. Alla fine del 2009 e agli inizi del 2010, il tasso di risparmio della Cina avrebbe tranquillamente potuto mantenersi intorno al 50% del PIL, considerato che il surplus commerciale non aveva registrato una riduzione significativa rispetto agli anni precedenti. In realtà, per un breve periodo, la Cina ha registrato un deficit commerciale, dato che gli elevati investimenti in immobilizzazioni (dovuti alle politiche di stimolo del governo varate sulla scia della crisi finanziaria globale) alimentavano la domanda interna di beni come succederebbe nel caso in cui i consumatori spendessero maggiormente.

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