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ما ساهم في نجاح ترامب قد يُغرق بايدن

Dec 24, 2020 J. Bradford DeLong

بيركلي - يشمل عدد قليل من الناس الذين صوتوا للرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب في انتخابات عام 2020 الأثرياء الذين استفادوا من التخفيضات الضريبية التي أقرها بدعم الجمهوريين في الكونجرس، أو حتى الأثرياء الطموحين الذين كانوا يأملون في الاستفادة من هذه التخفيضات في المستقبل. لا شك أن بعض ناخبي ترامب يُركزون بشدة على تعيين قُضاة يمينيين في المحكمة الفيدرالية. لكن الكثيرين من بين 74 مليونًا الذين صوتوا لصالح ترامب فعلوا ذلك لأسباب أخرى.

ومع ذلك، فإن السبب الوحيد المشترك لمعظمهم هو أن ترامب كان رئيسًا في الفترة التي حقق فيها الاقتصاد الأمريكي زيادات كبيرة في الأجور للأسر الأمريكية العادية. قبل اندلاع جائحة كوفيد 19 - وفشل إدارة ترامب الذريع في التعامل معها - عرفت معدلات الأجور في الولايات المتحدة نموًا أسرع من أي وقت مضى منذ فترة رئاسة بيل كلينتون.

إذا عجز الاقتصاد الأمريكي عن تحقيق زيادات مُماثلة في الأجور على مدى السنوات الأربع المُقبلة، فإن هؤلاء الناخبين البالغ عددهم 74 مليون شخص (وربما أكثر) سيُلاحظون الفرق ويُصوتون في عام 2024 لصالح ترامب (إذا ترشح للانتخابات الرئاسية مرة أخرى) أو لصالح بعض أنصاره الجمهوريين مثل السناتور توم كوتون النائب الجمهوري عن ولاية أركنساس أو السناتور عن ولاية ميزوري جوش هاولي.

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J. Bradford DeLong

Writing for PS since 2002
226 Commentaries

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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Wal Stir Dec 27, 2020

"with the prime-age employment-to-population ratio having ticked up to 77%"

Remember back to your school days and the students in your classes that never completed their assignments; never did their homework; never paid attention in class? Guess which group ends up comprising a significant portion of that 23%. By definition, half the population have 2-digit IQs - boosting the prime-age employment-to-population ratio from 75% to 100% would not increase the overall productivity of the workforce by a third.
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Wal Stir Dec 27, 2020

"Before the COVID-19 pandemic – and the Trump administration’s utter failure to manage it"

Covid-19 statistics are available here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The US has lower Covid-19 case and death rates per million than many other countries; so the failure cannot have been "total". Compare the rates within the various US states which are all under the same Trump administration:

Death rate per million:

Belgium: 1,650
U.S.A.: 1,025
New Jersey: 2,111
Vermont: 194
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