مستقبل آسيا بعد موجة المد العارمة

ليس لأحد أن يستخف بحجم الدمار الذي جلبته موجات المد العارمة المروعة التي ضربت آسيا. عائلات فقدت عدداً كبيراً من أعضائها، وبيوت دُمِرَت، وأسباب رزق خُرِبَت. وكما هو الحال عادة في الكوارث الطبيعية، فقد كان أكبر نصيب من العذاب والمعاناة للفقراء.

مع هذا، وحتى مع الضرر الذي لحق بالبنية الأساسية مثل الطرق والسكك الحديدية، فمن المتوقع أن يكون التأثير الكلي الذي ستخلفه موجات المد المحيطية العارمة على الاقتصاد ثانوياً ضئيلاً. ففي أكثر المناطق تضرراً في الهند، وإندونيسيا، وسريلانكا، وتايلاند، لم تتأثر الأجزاء القريبة من السواحل داخل البلاد، في حين أن صناعتي السياحة وصيد الأسماك ـ اللتين تمثلان شريان الحياة للمناطق الساحلية التي لحق بها الدمار ـ لا تشكلان سوى حصة ضئيلة من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لهذه الدول، حيث أدت إصلاحات تحرير الاقتصاد التي شهدتها هذه الدول إلى تعزيز التنوع الاقتصادي والنمو السريع.

لم يكن الأمر دوماً على هذا المنوال. فمن الثابت تاريخياً أنه كان من الصعب إقناع الآسيويين بأن التجارة الدولية ليست مغامرة لابد فيها من كاسب وخاسر، حيث تكون آسيا هي الطرف الخاسر دوماً. وهذا واحد من الأسباب التي جعلت أغلب دول آسيا، بعد انتصار الشيوعيين من أتباع ماو تسي تونج في الصين عام 1949، وحصول دول آسيا الأخرى على استقلالها، تتبنى سياسات اقتصادية حمائية منغلقة ترمي إلى تعزيز القوة الداخلية، وإبقاء القوى "الإمبريالية" الاستعمارية بالخارج، والوصول إلى الاعتماد على الذات.

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