Padres e hijos árabes

El problema de la sucesión en las repúblicas seculares árabes subraya su predicamento en la transición a una etapa post-revolucionaria, ya que la sucesión en los regímenes que no forjan instituciones sólidas siempre corre el riesgo de desatar una crisis sistémica. Si bien la decisión de algunos a favor de una sucesión dinástica puede carecer de esencia democrática, no está completamente desprovista de mérito. Podría decirse que es una opción para la modernización económica, para un coto a la política de conflicto y para un cambio político positivo más adelante.

Años de autoritarismo represivo respaldado por Occidente cortaron de raíz cualquier posible surgimiento de una alternativa liberal a los regímenes árabes de incumbencia, y transformó toda medida abrupta a favor de elecciones libres en un ejercicio peligroso en la democracia islámica. Una democracia que produce gobiernos liderados por Hamas, Hezbollah o la Hermandad Musulmana está inevitablemente destinada a ser anti-occidental y a oponerse a un "proceso de paz" con Israel inspirado por Estados Unidos.

Siria ya intentó asegurar la continuidad del régimen a través de una sucesión hereditaria cuasi-monárquica con el traspaso del poder de Hafez al-Assad a su hijo Bashar. Hay indicios de que Egipto podría seguirle los pasos, con una asunción del hijo de Hosni Mubarak, Gamal. De la misma manera, Muammar Khaddafi de Libia puede ser sucedido por su hijo, Seif el Islam. Como producto de tomas del poder militares revolucionarias, estos regímenes nacionalistas seculares no lograron producir una genuina legitimidad popular y han tenido que recurrir a la sucesión dinástica practicada por los regímenes que derrocaron.

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