Padres e hijos árabes

El problema de la sucesión en las repúblicas seculares árabes subraya su predicamento en la transición a una etapa post-revolucionaria, ya que la sucesión en los regímenes que no forjan instituciones sólidas siempre corre el riesgo de desatar una crisis sistémica. Si bien la decisión de algunos a favor de una sucesión dinástica puede carecer de esencia democrática, no está completamente desprovista de mérito. Podría decirse que es una opción para la modernización económica, para un coto a la política de conflicto y para un cambio político positivo más adelante.

Años de autoritarismo represivo respaldado por Occidente cortaron de raíz cualquier posible surgimiento de una alternativa liberal a los regímenes árabes de incumbencia, y transformó toda medida abrupta a favor de elecciones libres en un ejercicio peligroso en la democracia islámica. Una democracia que produce gobiernos liderados por Hamas, Hezbollah o la Hermandad Musulmana está inevitablemente destinada a ser anti-occidental y a oponerse a un "proceso de paz" con Israel inspirado por Estados Unidos.

Siria ya intentó asegurar la continuidad del régimen a través de una sucesión hereditaria cuasi-monárquica con el traspaso del poder de Hafez al-Assad a su hijo Bashar. Hay indicios de que Egipto podría seguirle los pasos, con una asunción del hijo de Hosni Mubarak, Gamal. De la misma manera, Muammar Khaddafi de Libia puede ser sucedido por su hijo, Seif el Islam. Como producto de tomas del poder militares revolucionarias, estos regímenes nacionalistas seculares no lograron producir una genuina legitimidad popular y han tenido que recurrir a la sucesión dinástica practicada por los regímenes que derrocaron.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable

    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.