Clash des générations dans le monde arabe ?

La mort de Yasser Arafat et de Sheikh Zayed, le dirigeant de longue date des Emirats arabes unis, accentue le changement de génération qui a débuté en 1999-2000, lorsque les dirigeants de Jordanie, du Maroc, de Bahreďn et de Syrie sont morts les uns ŕ la suite des autres. La population du Moyen-Orient est en moyenne plus jeune et ses dirigeants plus âgés que dans le reste du monde. Le remplacement progressif d’une classe dirigeante par une autre est l’un des facteurs décisifs qui pourrait entraîner un véritable changement dans le monde arabe.

Actuellement, quatre générations de dirigeants politiques coexistent dans la région. La génération sortante, celle d’Arafat, du roi Hussein, de Hafez el Assad, du roi Fahd et du président Moubarak, est née avant 1935; c’est elle qui a joué un rôle décisif dans les événements du Moyen-Orient, depuis les années 1970 jusqu’ŕ aujourd'hui.

Arrivés ŕ l’âge adulte, ces dirigeants ont entamé leur carričre ŕ l’époque de la décolonisation. Ils ont été nourris du nationalisme pan-arabe de Nasser et l’événement crucial a été pour eux la défaite arabe face ŕ Israël en 1967. Cette génération voulait des dirigeants arabes forts pour contrebalancer la puissance israélienne. Ils croyaient ou penchaient vers des formes de socialisme et d’étatisme et ne considéraient pas la démocratie ou les droits civils comme une priorité.

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