Quelles réponses donner à l’Iran ?

NEW YORK – Nous disposons de nombreuses informations sur le programme nucléaire iranien et ce que nous savons n’est pas encourageant. Il semble que l’Iran enrichit de l’uranium dans deux sites – dont une partie est enrichie à plus de 20 pour cent, au-delà du point nécessaire à des fins civiles. L’Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique a de son côté publié un rapport indiquant que l’Iran avait travaillé à la mise au point d’une arme nucléaire. En clair, l’affirmation des autorités iraniennes selon laquelle le programme nucléaire a pour seul objectif la production d’électricité ou la recherche médicale n’a aucune crédibilité.

Ce que nous ne savons pas est tout aussi important. Nous ignorons par exemple si l’Iran mène des activités secrètes dans des sites inconnus, ou à quel moment le pays serait en mesure de fabriquer une arme nucléaire rudimentaire – les estimations s’échelonnent entre plusieurs mois et plusieurs années. Nous ignorons également si les dirigeants iraniens, en proie à des luttes intestines, ont décidé de mettre au point des armes nucléaires ou seulement de s’arrêter juste avant ce stade en calculant que le pays profiterait des avantages liés à la possession de l’arme atomique sans pour autant courir les risques ou subir les coûts associés à son développement effectif.

Quoiqu’il en soit, les activités nucléaires de l’Iran placent le monde devant des choix difficiles. Aucun n’est sans risque ou sans frais. De plus, ni les coûts, ni les risques ne peuvent être évalués avec précision.

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