Anatomía de un Derrumbe

¿Por qué cayeron tan bajo los valores accionarios de alta tecnología en el último año y medio? ¿Qué nos dice el derrumbe del NASDAQ (y de los mercados cambiarios de tecnología informática (IT) de menor tamaño en el mundo) acerca del futuro de la "nueva economía"? Conforme nos alejamos de esos eventos, es posible realizar una evaluaciónmás clara.

La sabiduría convencional mantiene que el derrumbe del NASDAQ expuso a la "nueva economía" como un mágico truco de espejos y humo. Encarnó la exuberancia irracional que a menudo aparece como un alza acelerada y no produjo resultados más profundos y permanentes en la economía. Una explicación más probable, sin embargo, es que el NASDAQ se haya derrumbado porque se volvió claro que las posiciones dominantes de mercado en los negocios basados en la alta tecnología no eran fuentes de ganancia a menos que estuvieran acompañadas por barreras considerables contra la entrada de nuevos competidores potenciales, y porque tales barreras a la entrada se estaban volviendo notablemente difíciles de crear.

En una amplia gama de actividades, el efecto dominante de la "nueva economía" ha sido hacer la competencia más efectiva, no crear nuevas ventajas basándose en economías de escala. El derrumbe en el sector de alta tecnología fue, entonces, resultado de que los inversionistas descubrieron que la "nueva economía", en la mayoría de los sectores y para la mayoría de las empresas, tenía más posibilidades de llevar a una creciente competencia y a márgenes reducidos, que a grandes ganancias de tipo "cuasirrentas"originadas en posiciones de mercado establecidas.

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