Anatomie krachu

Proč za poslední rok a půl tolik klesly burzovní hodnoty vyspělých technologií? Co krach burzy NASDAQ (a dalších, menších burz informačních technologií na celém světě) napovídá o budoucnosti ,,nové ekonomiky"? Teď, po uplynutí určitého času, se můžeme pokusit o jasnější zhodnocení těchto událostí.

Podle všeobecně přijímaného názoru krach burzy NASDAQ odhalil, že tzv. nová ekonomika nebyla ničím jiným než žonglérským kouskem burzovních a finančních alchymistů. Byla ztělesněním iracionálního nadšení, k jakým dochází v dobách vrcholící konjunktury, a nijak trvaleji neovlivnila změny v ekonomice. Pravděpodobnějším vysvětlením ale je, že burza NASDAQ zkrachovala proto, že se ukázalo, že dominantní tržní postavení technologických firem je zdrojem zisku jen za předpokladu existence mohutných bariér, jež brání vstupu nové konkurence - a tyto bariéry bylo čím dál obtížnější stavět.

Dominantním efektem ,,nové ekonomiky" bylo v celé řadě odvětví zefektivnění konkurence, nikoli vytváření nových výhod na základě úspor vzniklých rozšiřováním produkce. Technologický krach byl tedy důsledkem toho, že si investoři uvědomili, že ,,nová ekonomika" ve většině sektorů a u většiny firem nepovede ke kvazivýhodám ze zavedených tržních pozic, nýbrž ke zvýšené konkurenci a nižším maržím.

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