¿Un abismo otoñal?

BERLÍN – En los próximos meses, varias graves crisis económicas y políticas regionales podrían combinarse en un tremendo punto de inflexión que alimente una intensa conmoción mundial. Durante el verano, la perspectiva de una caída peligrosa ha pasado a ser aún más probable.

Suenan tambores de guerra aún más ruidosos en Oriente Medio. Nadie puede predecir la dirección en la que el Presidente y la mayoría parlamentaria islamistas suníes de Egipto orientarán el país, pero una cosa está clara: los islamistas suníes están modificando decisivamente la política de la región. Esa realineación regional no tiene por qué ser necesariamente antioccidental, pero lo será sin lugar a dudas, si Israel o los Estados Unidos o los dos atacan al Irán militarmente.

Entretanto, la guerra civil arrecia en Siria, acompañada de una catástrofe en materia humanitaria. Desde luego, el régimen del Presidente Bashar Al Assad no sobrevivirá, pero está decidido a luchar hasta el final. La balcanización de Siria entre los diversos grupos étnicos y religiosos del país es un resultado claramente predecible. De hecho, ya no se puede excluir una situación parecida a la de Bosnia, mientras que la perspectiva de que el Gobierno sirio pierda el control de sus armas químicas plantea una amenaza inmediata de intervención militar por parte de Turquía, Israel o los EE.UU.

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