Un abîme d'automne ?

BERLIN - Dans les prochains mois, plusieurs graves crises régionales économiques et politiques pourraient se combiner en un unique moment méga-décisif, qui pourrait alimenter un intense bouleversement mondial. Au cours de l'été, la perspective d'un automne périlleux n'est devenue que plus probable.

Les tambours de guerre ont résonné de plus en plus fort au Moyen-Orient. Personne ne peut prédire dans quelle direction le président sunnite islamiste égyptien et la majorité parlementaire vont diriger le pays. Mais une chose est sûre : les islamistes sunnites modifient résolument la politique de la région. Ce réalignement régional ne doit pas être nécessairement anti-occidental, mais il le sera sûrement si Israël et/ou les Etats-Unis attaquent militairement l'Iran.

En attendant, la guerre civile fait rage en Syrie, suivie d'une catastrophe humanitaire. Une chose est certaine : le régime du président Bachar el-Assad ne survivra pas, mais ce dernier est déterminé à lutter jusqu'au bout. La balkanisation de la Syrie entre les divers groupes ethniques et religieux du pays est un résultat tout à fait prévisible. En effet, un scénario de type Bosnie ne peut plus être exclu, alors que la perspective de perte de contrôle du gouvernement syrien sur ses armes chimiques constitue une menace d'intervention militaire immédiate par la Turquie, Israël ou les États-Unis.

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